A Surprisingly Stunned Concession Speech and Why Gil Grissom is Always Right

 

As I write this I want to make something clear.  This is not a partisan post stating who was the better candidate and why the election was one or lost.  There was a significant piece of this election, however, that seems to have gone unnoticed.

On Tuesday night Governor Mitt Romney gave a stunned concession speech.  He had stated earlier in the day that the only speech he had written was an acceptance speech.  This was not bravado.  He truly believed that he was going to win the election.  He and Paul Ryan had worked hard and many of the people they had surrounded themselves with had assured both of them they were going to win the election.

They were highly confidence.  They even had a rally in Pennsylvania because they had been told that state was teetering toward them and all it needed was a little nudge.  Dick Morris said it was going to be a landslide, going toward them.  Talk radio hosts were brimming with confidence, even bravado.  The people around the Romney and Ryan Campaign were assuring the two candidates that they had this one in the bag.

It all was, to use an old cliche, a lot of happy talk. 

The problem was that the people around the Romney and Ryan Campaign were looking at a lot of hypotheses and ideological perspectives and were seeing the results that they wanted to see.  They had become so adept at this, however, they missed something.  The numbers indicated otherwise.

Nate Silver is a statistician, an expert in sabermetrics which is  is the specialized analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity, and practicioner of psephology which is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections.  In short, Silver deals extensively with the obscure practice of the most finite methods if probability and statistics.  Silver predicted on the weekend before the election that there was better than a 90% chance that President Obama was going to win the election.  Silver predicted the states that would be blue and the states that would be red, and his predictions were made well in advance of the election.

Silver blogs on the New York Times website, or is at least hosted by them.  Silver was dismissed because the Times hosted his blog and the presumption was that Silver’s predictions were politically biased.  They weren’t.

Silver never looked at the issues and never made any predictions based on what he felt about each candidate.  In fact no one knows who he was planning on voting for or if he even voted.  Silver has had nothing to say about the issues or the policies of either party or either candidate.  He based everything on a deep, deep analysis of the polls.

In short, Silver made a prediction on facts.  Probability is a science based on what will probably happen as opposed to what was certain.  Silver was very clear on that.  There are always uncertainties, last minute changes, voter turn out projections that are wrong.  But these uncertainties are often not a big factor and so Silver made a prediction based entirely on the evidence placed before him.

Which brings me to Gil Grissom.  Gil Grissom was the head CSI on the television show CSI.  Grissom, like Silver, is a nerd.  Grissom would always drive the other people crazy because he didn’t go after who he projected the criminal was, he had one mantra, ‘follow the evidence.’  Grissom was a fiend about assuring they followed the facts rather than gut instincts.  The gut, he would tell people, leads people where they want to go as opposed to where the evidence will lead them.  Grissom, at least in the world of television, was always right.  The evidence always leads us to the right answer.

Silver is a modern day Gil Grissom.  He predicted 2008 perfectly.  He also predicted 2010 perfectly.  His predictions on which states would be blue and which would be red were 100% accurate.

People who read Silver’s blog had a strong conviction the election was going to fall the way it did.  The people around the Romney and Ryan Campaign kept assuring the candidate that Silver was a crazy liberal who was way wrong.  Reality is, no one knows what Silver believes----it doesn’t matter.  He follows only facts.

This led to a surprising concession speech.  Mr. Romney believed, down deep, he was going to win this election and making this speech, a very, very gracious speech, was probably the most difficult thing he had ever done.

It may be a reminder to us that the Gil Grissoms and the Nate Silvers in this world, these scientific nerd types, are worth listening to as they provide us with information that is real as opposed to happy talk.

Reality is sometimes painful, but it is always real.  To his credit, Mr. Romney recognized reality in the end, conceded the election, and very graciously congratulated the winner and very generously offered his prayers.  It was, for him, a moment of humility and irony; a life long numbers man lost an election because of the numbers.  Gil Grissom is always right.  The evidence always tells us what is real.

Election Observations

I’m still thinking this election was The Seinfeld Show of elections.  It was, at its core, an election about nothing.  The larger issues of our day were not addressed by either party or either candidate.  There are some things I did observe.

First, Nate Silver of the New York Times had the most insight into the election of anyone.  Silver used polling data that he viewed as reliable and was a fearless numbers cruncher.  He based his conclusions on facts as opposed to ideology and he was right.  So many pundits were off because they were seeing what they wanted to see as opposed to what was really there.  Silver followed the rule of Grissom, “Follow the evidence.”

Mitt Romney, but even more especially, Ann Romney looked defeated and exhausted Tuesday night.  An election makes a person move at 100 MPH for months and at the end it’s an even faster and more frantic pace.  People run on pure adrenalin for a long time, but when it’s over, it’s over.   And when you lose, it’s really over and positively crushing.

A staggering number of people still do not believe President Obama was born in the United States and that he is a Muslim.  He was, and he’s not.  To believe otherwise is simply ignorant.  Seriously, it is ignorant.  You may disagree with the man all you want, but don’t be a fool.

An obscene amount of money was spent on this election.  It was spent in different ways.  One campaign used much of it on commercials and the other used it on what the media calls, the ground game.  It turned out that the ground game was the better option----that an social media and direct marketing on the Internet.  Karl Rove who was so clever in running elections in the past was amazingly ineffective this time with his Super PAC.  Much has been made of Karl Rover’s ‘meltdown’ on Fox News.  It was a $300,000,000.00 breakdown and very much a reality that many people who invested in him will no longer do so.

The country is badly divided.  It has been badly divided for a long time and things have only gotten worse.  The divides are very much present between the rich and the poor; the urban and the rural; small town and suburbs; men and women; young and old; and, of course, racially.  We cannot overlook the racial divide in the country.  Stating this does not mean that I am even remotely suggesting that voting against President Obama was a racist thing to do.  Not even close.  There are, of course, people who voted racially on both sides, but racism is not the bigger factor here.  The bigger factor is very much evident in the remarks of a Republican strategist who said that the Republicans are viewing the nation of Mad Men and the Democrats are viewing the world of Modern Family. 

Here’s another thing.  The American population voted who they wanted in office.  This means that people chose, very deliberately, to have Barack Obama as the President and not Mitt Romney.  They chose the people they wanted in the Senate over the people they didn’t want; keeping it in the hands of the Democrats.  People also chose a majority of Republicans in the House.  We can say what we want about redistricting, etc., but these are the people who have been voted into office.  I also believe that people voted they way they did because they want a counterbalance between the two parties.  No one group owns the sandbox.  Everyone HAS to play together----which means the two parties HAVE to work together.  There are serious issues that have to be addressed and nothing can or will be solved with one party dictating to the other how it is going to be done.  We have to pray our leaders understand this and respect the will of the American people.

Finally, this.  Patriotism is not an idea of the Republicans or the Democrats.  It is an American ideal.

Pondering “Revolution”

 

My wife and I have been watching the television show, “Revolution.”

I am not sure how I feel about this show.  At its premise it is about some sort of weapon that was created that would neutralize all the electrical power in the world.  Somehow it worked and the world has been going on for many years without electricity.  The United State government fell and regions are ruled by militias that are battling the populace and one another for national, if not world domination.

In many ways, the world has been turned upside down.  We all remember the bullies in high school, those who were bigger and stronger and who ruled the roost.  If one was a nerd, one was a loser in high school.  However, real life tended to neutralize things.  The nerds went to college, became professionals and suddenly the tables turned.  In “Revolution,” the tables have turned back.  In a wild, untamed society, intellectual know how isn’t as strong a commodity as brute force and violence.

The show is violent.  The heros are a small band of people.  The former militia leader, his niece who is the daughter of the man who created the device that eliminated electricity.  There is also the classic nerd buy with them who has a pendant that holds the secret of power, and another young woman who is a rebel fighter and bomb making expert.

There are others.  There is the head of the militia, the son of the man who created the device, his Mom, and the ongoing saga of the formerly nerdy insurance adjustor turned macho man interrogator and bad guy. 

One thing I like about the show is that it is a reminder of how much we are slaves to the technology of our world and how it all depends on electricity.  If the electricity goes out, we are in serious trouble.  As the electricity in the show is completely out, cars can no longer run (they have batteries) and transportation is brought to a standstill.  Steam trains, steam boats, and horses and carriages are the modes of transportation.  And walking.

Communication is changed forever.  There is no more Internet, no more radio, no television, no telephone communication.  One’s smart phone can be used as a doorstop and little more.  Chaos ensues and the show very clearly demonstrates this.

Whenever we see catastrophes in our nation, we recently have observed Hurricane Sandy, we realize just how important our electrical grid is and how fragile it is.

The underlying story of the militias is also interesting.  They came to be as no one was safe and the militias began to give people safety; they were the only means of law enforcement.  Of course, as they became more powerful they became corrupt and savage to the population they had sworn to protect.

There are lessons in the show about power: electrical power and human power.  The tragedy is, as it so often is, that people’s failure to love one another begins to dictate how life is carried out.

When there is chaos people turn to brute force and violence and hatred begins to fill the day.

What disappoints me about the show is that the heros are not very likeable and have become every bit as violent as they people they oppose.  They lack trust and they seem to have the inability to love and trust one another.  Often, even at their best moments, they do not look to transform hearts to goodness, charity, and love, but to more violence.

I worry about us when we see violence as the solution to the problem.  Perhaps we need to learn that violence is not a solution as much as it is a furthering of the problems of our world.  I am reminded we have a long way to go, and a long way to fully embrace Jesus’ command of loving one another.

Not a Noble Election

 

In 1860 perhaps the most important election in the history of the United States took place.  It was between Abraham Lincoln ,Stephen Douglas, John Bell, and John Breckenridge.  Lincoln and Douglas were the two major party nominees and their debates were legendary.  Douglas, however, only won one state and while Lincoln swept the north, Bell and Breckenridge swept through the south.

There was one very large looming issue.  Did human beings have the right to own other human beings?    One can argue that the Southern way of life was at stake and the Southern economy was at stake, and Southern liberty was at stake until we turn purple.  It was all based on the right of some human beings owning other human beings.    Lincoln won and we know the results of the issues that were at hand.

The election if 1860 was easily the most important election in the history of the United States.  We would not be the nation we are today had it not been for that election.  That election changed the future and culture of our nation.  It was, in many ways, a time when a noble idea went forward.  Many of called it the most important and, in many ways, the most noble of all American Presidential elections.

The year 2012 will not be a year of nobility.

An obscene amount of money was spent on this election.

People, corporations, and special interest groups flooded us with paid advertisements to elect the candidate of their choice.  In a time of economic difficulty that is graver than any time apart from the Great Depression, billions of dollars were spent on an election.  In a time when people needed jobs, money that could pay salaries was poured into television advertisement.  In a time when we have record numbers of people homeless, jobless, and hungry, billions of dollars was spent on paid advertisements.  This year’s election was so incredibly obscene in terms of money spent. 

Ironically, this election was, in so many ways, a reflection of The Seinfeld Show.  It was, amazingly, an election about not very much....

There are a lot of significant issues that were not addressed:

We sent into two separate wars and cut taxes.  As a result with the cost of the wars (on VISA), and all the government programs, we are awash in debt.  The discussions on taxation and benefits was heated, but no one ever discussed the debt accrued by two unfunded wars.

Hurricane Sandy exposed a couple of things not discussed.  The storm patterns were unprecedented.   These storms have historically gone up the east coast and drifted east.  This storm made a dramatic turn west.  This was abnormal-----but we need to get used to it.  Scientists have told us that climate change has melted large sections of the polar ice cap north of Greenland and changed the jet stream and currents.  The path of this storm was the direct result of the change in climate.  It also exposed the fact that the infrastructure of the United States, especially in older regions like the Northeast, are very, very inadequate.

Climate change is a reality that we should not be ignoring any longer.  Huge economic opportunities are present for people moving us into a new age, and yet, this was not an issue, and never mentioned.  Infrastructure?  Again, not an issue in this election.

Healthcare?  A lot of verbiage on the Affordable Health Care Act, Obamacare, and whether it’s good or not.  No discussion that the world’s richest nation ranks #37 on the World Health Organization's ranking of the world's health systems.  We are just below Costa Rica and just above Slovenia.  France and Italy not only have some of the world’s finest food, but they rank #1 and #2 in world health systems.  There was no discussion of France and Italy’s healthcare systems and why they work so well.

In many ways, this election was made very clear in a couple of instances.

Martha Raddatz asked Joe Biden and Paul Ryan about their Roman Catholic faith and how it impacted their views on abortion.  She took a very, very broad question about the faith and turned it into one issue.  Instead of asking them how their Roman Catholic faith impacted their world views and their role in the government, she made it a single topic question.  Both men gave very articulate answers I might add, but she had such a magnificent opportunity to ask a very good question, and didn’t.

In the Presidential debates, President Obama, very much a product of mainline Protestantism, and Governor Romney, very much a product of Mormonism, were never asked how their faith impacted their world views and their role in government.  It was a great question, never asked.

But perhaps above all, a young man asked a question about graduating from college and looking for a job.  Both President Obama and Governor Romney gave very patronizing answers.  They both helped to paint the lad as a victim of the times, the other party, etc. 

What neither man did was tell the young man the truth.  The way people come out of college and get jobs is they work very hard at it.  No one is going to drop a job on your lap; you have to apply, have a good resume, and excellent grades, and interview well.  There is a lot of hard work in getting a job out of college.  Smart parents tell their children that and good leaders tell citizens that.  In that moment, both men failed miserably in leadership.

I have no idea what the election of 1860 cost, but it wasn’t close to what this one will cost.  It was, however, the most important, and in many ways, most noble of American elections.  The election of 2012, no matter who wins, was not a battle of high ideals and noble causes, it was a battle of money and a dodging of the big issues of our day.

Audio Sermon 11-4-12

 

Delighting in Reaching Beyond Ourselves in Mission

Text:  James 2:14-18

Rev. Dr. John E. Manzo

Stewardship Moment Joy Knopfmeier

 

Stewardship Moment Rev. Dr. Earl Miller

 

Sermon in Multiple Parts

This week’s sermon is going to require a small bit of effort, but I hope worth it.

Parts 1 and 2  are narrative portions with a video in the middle.  I broke the sermon up into the two parts to make this easy.    To follow the progression of the sermon listen to Part 1, watch the video, and then listen to Part 2.

 

Sermon Title:  Finding Delight in Reaching Out in Evangelism.

 

Sermon Audio 10-21-12

Delight in Reaching Up to Worship God

Hebrews 5:1-10

October 21, 2012

Rev. Dr. John E. Manzo

Audio Sermon 10-14-12

Spiritual Surgery

Hebrews 4:12-16

Rev. Dr. John E. Manzo

Audio Sermon 10-7-2012

Peace in the Kin-dom of God

Text:  John 14-7-21

Rev. Dr. John E. Manzo

Audio Sermon 9-30-12

Soul Food

Text:  James 5:13-20

September 30, 2012

Rev. Dr. John E. Manzo

Audio Sermon September 23rd: Rev. Merideth Sprigler

The Light of God’s Love

Text:  John 1:1-14

Head Slap Moments

People who are NFL fans are in a tizzy. The replacement officials have been spotty. Some good calls, some bad calls. This past weekend was a debacle. The final game of the weekend ended on an obviously blown call. The call was so bad that there wasn’t one thing wrong with it, there were multiple things wrong with it.

It was not the fault of the officials. They blew the call, but they were not people who should have

never been in the position they were in. These were low level officials who had no aspiration or skill to officiate on the professional level. This has been an opportunity to make some good money quickly and live out lifelong dreams of officiating on such a big stage.

Professional football is different from other levels of football. People who like football like different ‘types’ of the game and they all have great things going for them----if you like football. Pro football is played before large crowds with large television audiences, with professional commentators who know the game, and it is shot from multiple angles. The players are uniformly big and fast. The game is faster than on other levels and the stakes are incredibly high.

NFL officials are often yelled at but often usually correct. The replacement refs, not so much.

The NFL reviewed the play and said that the officials missed offensive pass interference (duh!) but made the correct call on the catch. This decision made, despite the very clear evidence that the defender was the person who caught the ball. Talk about nonsense. Talk about a head slap moment!!!

The most interesting comment on all of this, however, was a Facebook friend who said that it would be good if we were concerned as to the behavior and decisions or our elected officials as we are NFL officials. He was totally correct. Sometimes I look at how decisions are made by elected officials and I feel a need to give myself a major head slap. Duh!!!!

Such seems the state of our world right now.

Why is Worship Attendance Down Nationally

It is interesting to read a wide variety of opinions as to the ‘why’s’ of things.

In most religious circles there is a piece of information that is well known. Worship attendance is on the decline. Less people attend worship than 10 years ago; and 10 years ago it was less than 20 years ago. The decline has been steady and often steep.

Additionally, the next piece of information is also well known. The average age of people in a typical Worship Service is older. Older people are more inclined to get up on Sunday morning than younger people are. The decline actually started with the Baby Boom generation and as that generation is aging, the decline has become even more pronounced.

As time has progressed, when people are asked about their religious beliefs, the single largest group has become ‘spiritual but not religious.’ This often means that a person has some sort of belief in a higher power, but that higher power may or may not be defined and the person does not Worship in any faith community.

I recently read an article from a Roman Catholic Bishop who I’ve decided not to identify, but I think he has part of the story backward. His reasoning is that he sees a serious attempt to marginalize religion from the public forum and to limit religious freedom to the freedom of worship. Most clergy who are even marginally honest know there is no attempt by anyone to limit religious freedom and freedom to Worship as people so chose unless they happen to belong to a tradition that limits that freedom. Clergy know, within the parameters of our own traditions, there is total freedom of Worship and practice of religion. Many of those complaining about limitations on religious freedom are upset that they cannot impose their values on others who do not embrace them.

As for the public forum, again, I do not see this. There are people like Bill Maher who makes fun of religious people, but he is a comedian. Much of what he makes fun of is actually often deserving of the humor it receives. Some aspects of religious life have been dismissed by many, but it is not so much society’s fault as it is the fault of those of us within religious circles.

I suspect part of the reason there has been a decline in Worship attendance has been the fault of the religious community. In fact, I suspect it is the major reason.

Why?

For one, people have learned that clergy are seriously flawed….and we are. No exceptions. We fail, we often fail grievously, and as we learned with the child abuse scandal many of failed criminally with the most vulnerable in our midst. As has often been the case, innocent people were not protected by faith communities and people abandoned those faith communities. People lose faith in churches when this happens.

Secondly, churches have been too front and center in politics. There has been a log of rendering unto Caesar by the religious community.

Third, a science advances often there is little desire for many theological ideas to advance either. When I hear people saying that God expects us to believe the universe is 6000 years old I find myself wondering why anyone is willing to come to Worship any longer.

Fourth, groups like the Westboro Baptist Church and the “pastor” in Florida who is virulently anti-Islam have given people the impression that Christianity is one large hate group. When I see how many churches treat people who are gay, I see how people get this impression.

Fifth, gender is a hormonal ‘accident.’ Presuming people have to have different roles in church because of gender is, to me, insane. The rest of society has grown up. Why haven’t churches?

Perhaps the problem of Worship attendance is that we are not looking in the mirror enough.

Of course, there are other reasons….reasons I would probably not like to wish upon myself.  I know I have flaws and my church has flaws.  This is a huge challenge for those of us in religious circles.

My Words of Wisdom to Presidential Candidates

 

No one asked me but I decided to share my words of wisdom to the Presidential candidates. These can apply to the nominees of the two major parties, but in my humble opinion, these adages are good advice for everyone.

First, be aware that everything you say in public, even when ‘public’ is a ‘private’ event, has someone there who doesn’t like you and someone who can very possibly record everything you say. In short, mind your p’s and q’s because anything you say can and will be used.

Secondly, when you mess up, apologize. There seems to be this aversion to apologizing these days and that is a very, very bad development. Voters all mess up themselves and are usually very forgiving. Simple, quick, and sincere apologies change the playing field almost instantly. They are also good for the soul. The prodigal son ate a fatted calf at his Dad’s dinner table instead of feeding pigs because of one sincere apology. People who tell you apologies are bad are fools.

Thirdly, recognize that one of the nominees will be the President of the United States when all of this is over. Respect your opponents even if you don’t like them or don’t agree with them. If that opponent becomes the President, you need to assure they are not marginalized to the point that they cannot govern. At the end of the day, people are political opponents, not mortal enemies. Remember that!

Fourth, do not watch the news, do not listen to the radio, and avoid reading politics in the newspaper. You may begin to pay attention to what they have to say and become immobilized by criticism or advice.

Fifth, listen to average people. Get yourself in position to listen to average people without someone filtering what is being said. Your political advisors will try and ‘protect’ you from the average person. Don’t allow that.

Sixth, go on the network that likes your opponent better than you. Allow someone who is somewhat adversarial to you to interview you and give them a chance to ask tough questions----but questions that are fair. They should respect the office you are seeking and act accordingly if given the opportunity. Even if they don’t vote for you, they may respect you more if you allow them the opportunity to talk with you.

Seventh, keep it clean. You’ll sleep better.

Last, your closest friends and spouse need to have the opportunity to be totally honest with you. Allow them that and listen to them.

Audio Sermon, Sunday September 16,

“Jesus”

Mark 8:27-38

Audio Sermon 9/9/12 Commissioning One Another----Rejoicing in the Power of the Holy Spirit Text: John 20:19-22

 

Audio Sermon 9/2/12 Commissioning One Another: Love and Serve the Lord Deuteronomy 6:1-5

 

St. Paul

Something I have learned over the years is that many people struggle with St. Paul. In progressive mainline Protestant churches he is often a lightning rod for things people do not like about Christianity. His letters have often been cited by some to exclude women in leadership positions in the church and to establish hierarchies within families. Paul is seen by many to be harsh and judgmental. He is also often something of a dualist in his approach to humanity. Additionally, his letters often appear to be rather abstract and difficult to comprehend.

Yet, here I am, a progressive mainline Protestant who loves St. Paul. I really do and I preach from the Epistles of Paul a good deal. Often, at least in my opinion, the problems people have with St. Paul can be addressed.

First, the role of women is a sticking point for many. I do not believe Paul was a misogynist. Misogyny is a hatred of women and girls. Paul did not, in my mind, even come close to this. He was, however, a person of his time.

Jesus was not a person of his time. Jesus appeared to women first. In many ways, the primal message of the Gospels is that Jesus was raised from the dead. The first Christian preachers, the first people to share the good news of the resurrection of Christ were women. Jesus was not a person of his time and, frankly, neither was God very interested in the human constructs of the day. It can be argued that the Incarnation, the Word becoming flesh, was a primal message. Again, the receiver of that message was a woman. Women, in the Gospels, took a second seat to no one.

Paul was a person of his time. Women had no rights. Women did not speak in the synagogue. Women were the property of men. Often missed in Paul’s letter to the Ephesians about women submitting to husbands was the command for husbands to love their wives. It was more than romantic love. It was an outright statement of responsibility the husband was being given to take care of and be responsible for his wife’s well-being. His words are, however, in the context of the world he was living in. Paul was slightly ahead of his time by our standards, radically by the era’s standards.

The issue of women speaking in church was not unlike this. Paul came from a tradition where women were separated and silenced in the synagogue. In early Christianity, as some women stepped forward, this was met with great hesitation by people. One concern Paul had was that the women might lead the men astray as the women did not have the same background of information as the men. I wish he had given more say to the women having the ability and privilege of receiving more information, but he didn’t. Sadly. However, Paul was not atypical of his era.

Several things people seem to miss about St. Paul.

His writings were letters to churches addressing specific issues within those churches. The early Christian Church put those letters in the Bible, but Paul was not, in his mind, writing the New Testament. He was merely writing letters to address issues. His responses were and are brilliant. The problem is, however, that we do not have the letters TO Paul that contain the questions he was being asked. We attempt to ascertain those questions with his answers, but we might not always be correct. As a result, those letters may appear to us, to fall short.

Secondly, Paul was brilliant. He studied to be a rabbi under the premier Rabbi Gamaliel, who, in rabbinic terms, would have been the “Harvard or Yale” of his era. Paul was also fluent in Greek and his writings demonstrate a clear understanding of the writings of the Greek philosopher Plato. Paul uses the language of Plato to often explain, to the Gentile world, Jesus’ theology. This was no easy feat and it is often difficult to truly get a grasp on Paul without a working knowledge of Plato’s philosophy. His writings are sophisticated and often elegant and deftly put together.

Third, there is culture. People are products of their time and place. It’s important not to bind them to our time and place and judge them according to our own eras.

Lastly, the writings of Paul evolve. St. Paul, often not noticed by people, changed many perceptions. He became kinder and gentler as he got older. He grew in his faith. I admire that, and love that about him.

This blog today may seem random. Just a reminder to us, however, to not gloss over and dismiss this amazing man and his writings.