The Iowa Caucuses

It is a big night. It's awfully early, but it is a big night in Iowa.

I'll weigh in on my predictions.

For the Democrats, my prediction is that John Edwards will win, followed by Hillary Clinton, followed by Barack Obama who will come in a distant third.

My rationale on this is simple. Edwards did well here and I think of the three he has the most effective populist message. I believe that he plays well and will continue to play well in Iowa. Most importantly, Edwards' people are the most likely to come to the caucus. I think that he will also attract the "I don't think Hillary can win," vote.

Hillary Clinton has an effective machine and has a polished message. That actually may be the problem. She almost seems to be too polished to be real. Additionally, the anti-Clinton folks are always out there.

Obama. I'm not sure if he's the real deal or just the sizzle. He is charismatic and exciting, but I'm still wondering what lies beyond that. He has huge support amongst the young and that's going to hurt him at the caucus. His support is among those who traditionally don't show up. Maybe he will change this.

Among the Republicans.... I predict that Romney is going to come in first, with Huckabee in second, and McCain in third. Romney has a strong machine, he's charismatic, and has demonstrated competence in several levels. Like him or not, he's competent and capable.

Mike Huckabee is likable and sincere and has the knowledge depth of a tissue. I think he'll do reasonably well in Iowa, but will be creamed in New Hampshire and not be able to do much beyond that. He doesn't have the money or the organization.

John McCain is a guy who attracts many independents. Of our last two Presidents, one spent the Vietnam War in England and the other on the barroom floor. McCain is a real American hero and a genuine person. I think he'll be a surprise in Iowa.

Fred Thompson never showed up and Rudy Giuliani is too New York and spent too much time as the major wearing his pants around his knees. I can't see him winning the Republican nomination. Democrats find sexual sins forgivable and monetary corruption sins to be lethal; the Republicans are willing to overlook monetary corruption, but not sexual sins. Rudy doesn't have a prayer.

Am I right? Who knows? It will be interesting to watch.